What to Fear in Ukraine
Terry H. Schwadron
Feb. 25, 2022
Even as we are watching the Russian military roll into Ukraine, it should be apparent that the shockwaves are going to roil U.S., European and global alignments for years to come. No one will force the Russians out, unless they eventually tire of guerilla attacks.
Almost by the hour, we are hearing new reports of missile strikes, cyberattacks and preparations for ground troops and armored weapons to roll into Ukrainian cities, without regard to any of the earlier professed need to “protect” Russian nationals in Ukraine. The reports are partisan, of course, and just what the reality reflects about the state of Ukrainian resistance or brutality against civilians was not immediately available through the day.
We are seeing not only Ukraine deaths, but the almost immediate effects on international financial markets (including Moscow’s markets), the price of oil and the beginnings of geopolitical realignments, even risk to Chernobyl’s nuclear waste — all in fulfillment of Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s insistence on reinstating a Mother Russia lost to the breakup of the former Soviet Union.
As the talking heads noted repeatedly, it is wrong to try to adjudge this invasion by American standards of deal-making and diplomacy because at heart, the Russian aggression is motivated by emotion and a need to promote self-importance in worldwide decision-making.
As we watched the continuous awful news, we recognized this is a campaign to Make Russia Great Again, an unprovoked war on democracy.
But any continuing suggestions promoted by some in our own divided democracy that it is Europe alone that is being torn up without our involvement is ludicrous. The democracies in Europe are facing long-term threats — and NATO defense commitments tie us to their defense as well as their well-being. Taking Ukraine will put Russians on the border with NATO countries.
It Was Avoidable
It is both stomach-churning and stunning to remember that invasion into Ukraine was avoidable but for Putin’s singular unrestrained ego and nationalistic vision. NATO was not about to bring Ukraine under its defensive umbrella, as Putin charged, nor were friendly governments giving them offensive weapons, nor, even after eight years of encounters with separatists, was the Ukrainian government on attack.
Hell, we just watched people who worked the inner national security set-up work nonstop to deflect Donald Trump spend four years threatening to walk away from NATO and find ways to favor Putin in various international forums.
Over decades, we have lulled ourselves into the thought that, given the choice, people would choose democracy over autocracy, freedoms over bullying, reason and diplomacy over war. This incursion into a sovereign nation is somehow an attack on basic democratic values as well as a territorial grab.
Even from afar, the combination of unnecessary death, another huge refugee problem, the knee-jerk reaction to raise oil prices and added international uncertainty are more than troubling here at home as well as overseas.
American and European leaders went ahead with big-time economic sanctions as punishment, as promised, but in any practical sense, none of this will stop the current military actions by Russia. Indeed, one can foresee that after a lot of time and angst, there will be attempts by Russia to whittle their impact in some new faux-diplomatic effort.
As repeatedly endlessly now, over 20 years, Putin has advocated a return to Cold War-type big powers and a seat at the big table for Russia and the United States, and now China, to split up the world, Yalta-style. The invasion/military operation says that rise of democracy on his borders is something Putin needs to squash.
1939 Allusions
What is most troubling is all the comparisons to September 1939 and events preceding World War II, the loose use of “de-Nazification” of Ukraine’s government and other Hitleresque allusions coming at a time of global tribalism and rising ethnic hatreds, whether in Europe, Russia or the United States. Putin hints broadly about possible resort to nuclear weapons if nations seek to stop him.
Stir in war threats, civilian deaths, high consumer prices, runs on banks, the inevitable shortage of fuel and goods and what amounts to global white supremacy and you have the makings of a real revisit to the 1930s search for scapegoats.
We already are seeing a huge increase in anti-Semitic expression and violence, pushback against Black and Brown communities, enmity for refugees, Muslims, the gender-fluid in our society. Hatreds bred by international nationalist slogans are fanning embers that already are glowing.
Beyond the current, unnecessary bloodletting, I fear the next round of violence, when those hurt by Russian nationalism need to find someone to blame. A host of articles in The New York Times, Haaretz, The Center for European Policy Analysis, The Bulwark, and elsewhere are picking up on the coming concern for hate to show its ugly face. Though much is being made now of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky being half-Jewish, neither Ukraine nor Russia has proved a very safe home for Jews over time. Russia’s various wars on Muslims and Europe’s general disdain for its refugee populations follow a similar pattern.
Whatever narrative you have chosen to follow through these last weeks about Russian and allied intentions, we’ve passed the moment for deterrence. Now it is a question of how bad it will get and whether we can keep any sense of humanity in our global sparring.
##