Mar 13
Watching China & Ukraine
Terry H. Schwadron
March 12, 2022
China is declining to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts halted by the West as part of economic sanctions, according to Reuters.
In Russia, that was a prompt for officials to warn that passenger safety was under threat, but it was exactly the kind of sign that the United States and European allies want to see happening.
Two weeks into the war in Europe, there’s been a watch on the economic, diplomatic and even military tightrope that China has been walking. Having publicly suggested themselves as an ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the Chinese have joined in the disinformation wars, but have held back from embracing Putin’s action.
“In public statements and at international summits, Chinese officials have attempted to stake out a seemingly neutral position on the war, neither condemning Russian actions nor ruling out the possibility Beijing could act as a mediator in a push for peace,” a CNN analysis suggested.
China watchers have outlined Chinese self-interest in pursuing a similar takeover in Taiwan if Putin’s efforts had proved relatively easy and a bet on a possibly stronger alliance with a newly empowered Russia against the United States as a matter of another shift in world order.
In that regard, Chinese social media has been doubling down on Russian propaganda messages blaming “Nazis” in Ukraine for harming Russian-affiliating citizens and NATO for provoking the Russians by putting troops on Russia’s historic borders, however out of date that reference is. Chinese diplomats and state media organizations picked up on Russian charges of false U.S.-led bioweapons labs in Ukraine.
But with petitions, poetry and one-man protests, a small but increasingly bold contingent of Chinese residents have spoken out against Moscow’s incursions directly contradicting their government’s firm support of its Russian partner, says The Washington Post.
China’s Tightrope
So, is China an official cheerleader for Russia, is it out for its own chance to flaunt Western opposition to take back Taiwan, or are Chinese leaders cagily waiting out the moment to see how things turn out for new friends and foes?
We see Chinese statements about Russia’s “legitimate security concerns,” but no real fervor about helping Russia dig out from the sentence of sanctions being imposed from Western powers. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi repeatedly has called on all parties involved to “exercise restraint” and resolve the crisis through negotiation. Thus, the tightrope reference.
This week, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman suggested the real Chinese goal to note is stability, currently at serious risk in every direction. “The whole Faustian bargain between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese citizenry — the C.C.P. gets to rule while the people get to be steadily better off economically — depends to a significant degree on the stability of the global economy and trading system.”
A war in Europe, particularly one that bogs down amid deadly resistance from Ukrainians, and Western sanctions that isolate Russia and are being carried out in a truly punishing way do not help for that Chinese vision. Instead, the best Chinese-forward position is for stability in the world while they fish for influence in an increasing number of places, including Africa, pursue technological leadership through vast investment and pick up on regional military aggressiveness.
William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, told a Senate hearing Thursday that he believed Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, was “unsettled” by the Ukraine war and appeared to not have been told by his own intelligence services what would unfold.
James Carafano, a foreign policy expert at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, somewhat predictably told Fox News this week that if and when China faces harsh penalties in the form of tariffs or economic pressures, support for Russia will disappear.
Watch the Actions
CNN reviewed 5,000 social media posts from 14 Chinese state media outlets during the first eight days of Russia’s invasion posted onto China’s highly censored, Twitter-like platform, Weibo. The analysis found that of the more than 300 most-shared posts about the events in Ukraine almost half were distinctly pro-Russian, often containing information attributed to a Russian official or picked up directly from Russia’s state media.
The idea is that within China, the word getting out is supporting Russia propaganda, obviously not reflecting the “neutral” position being voiced by government officials. In the world of state-dictated messaging, it is useful to note that the Chinese media are amplified and reinforced talking points from Russia on issues involving the war or broader world events. Recent Chinese media reports have picked up on Russian denials of civilian bombings, for example, or on erroneous propaganda about U.S. bioweapons labs in Ukraine.
There is a difference, then, in what China tells its own residents and what it says to the world.
On the other hand, maybe our more important focus should be on Chinese actions, like this newly reported move not to re-supply Russia aircraft parts.
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