Walking Away from Ukraine?
Terry H. Schwadron
April 20, 2025
If Secretary of State Mario Rubio and Donald Trump don’t like the work, they should not have taken their jobs.
Rather than a boasted 24-hour deal for peace, it turns out that it is hard, sustained work requiring creativity, nuance and grit to get sworn enemies like Russia and Ukraine to a peace table. It is even harder when the Russians involved see both military advantage towards long-term goals and American weakness for impatience and they defy by war moves no matter what they say to Trump about peace.
If you were Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, Rubio’s comments that without discernible progress even within “days,” the United States might just walk away from the whole problem, read as an invitation to resist pressure. From his point of view, Trump and Rubio are about to hand him everything he wants to take over yet larger parts of Ukraine towards restoration of a Russian empire.
But rather than use the occasion to start new pressures on Putin, Trump is ready to walk away. Instead, he ridicules Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy for somehow not finding more concessions to an invading army. Yesterday, Putin declared a one-day suspension of war for a day, either to mark Easter or to play with Trump’s peace aspirations. In any case, one day does not a peace make; on Palm Sunday last week, Putin ordered missile strikes that killed 40 civilians, including children, and artillery fire was reported continuing despite the announcement.
Of course, Trump once again may change his mind, because as much as he cannot stand the real demands of persuasion and agreement, he will be unable to keep himself in a spotlight as potential peacemaker.
Still, in the Pantheon of diplomatic steadfastness, Rubio’s remarks leaving talks with European allies and Ukraine, come across as a flat failure, an acceptance of ruthlessness that ranks with Neville Chamberlin in another era. “If it is not possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on,” Rubio said, adding that the Trump administration would decide “in a matter of days whether or not this is doable in the next few weeks.”
It’s About Trump, Not Ukraine
Cryptic or not, the prospects for a sudden turnaround seem to mean that the Trump administration will abandon Ukraine to Russian missile attacks on civilian targets and usurpation of sovereign Ukrainian territory without U.S. intelligence, weapons or support. Trump and Rubio seem to want the Europeans to carry the load alone.
It wasn’t even clear whether Rubio meant walking away from a 30-day ceasefire or from all support for Ukraine altogether. We can only hope he is more direct when talking to foes.
In any case, the Rubio remarks underscore that Trump’s concern is not about what happens to Ukrainians.
The Paris meeting was the first to include European partners and Ukrainians in any discussion about ceasefires. Until now, it’s just been the U.S. pushing by itself to have separate meetings with Ukraine and Russia, to little practical avail. Indeed, Trump brutally embarrassed Zelenskyy in a televised Oval Office meeting that underscored the difference in relationship with Putin.
Whether intended or not, it was another sign that Trump will favor Russia out of his perceived bromance with Putin over the protection of Western democracy or the long-term interests of the NATO allies to defend against continuing Russian aggression.
Impatience is a Vulnerability
Among all else, the threat to walk away makes a mockery of the vassal-like minerals treaty Trump has demanded of Ukraine in repayment of weapons support to an ally. With continuing Russian aerial attacks, there will be no mining or treasure to be had. A preliminary memo of understanding towards that agreement was signed on Friday with no mention of security guarantees for Ukraine or even outlines for how putative money will flow from any mining of rare earth minerals and other ores.
The impatience with hard questions is a serious vulnerability that we are seeing in talks with Iran that briefly resumed yesterday, with Hamas in the Middle East, where almost no useful negotiations are underway, and over the countries seeking to open trade talks with the White House only because they are under U.S. threat.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he has serious doubts over U.S. motivations; American envoy Steve Witkoff agreed to meet again next Saturday after experts have a chance to design a framework, even as Israeli officials acknowledged they were still mulling a limited strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Even deportations have depended on impatient flights to El Salvador prisons before clearing due process hurdles in U.S. courts, only to draw mocking social media posts from the Salvadorean president.
Impatience leads Trump to use the military and economic power of this country to dictate terms and to expect instant capitulation. Even if it had worked in the business world — which it clearly did not always for Trump — that kind of authoritarian approach will not work in diplomatic settings.
Trump avoids setting goals and strategies; it is the deal that attracts him based on personal relationships that put him in the center ring.
Through his constant boasts for personalized power, he has insisted on the key mediator role between Russia and Ukraine. To threaten withdrawal because the clashing parties have trouble finding a middle ground is petulant narcissism, not an alternative to war.
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