The Vote Confusion
Terry H. Schwadron
Sept. 9, 2024
With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump seemingly locked in a tight race, the outcome well could be determined simply by who turns out enough voters.
The issue is that a good number of states have been tightening voter identification rules or ordering the scrubbing of voters who did not cast a ballot in recent years or simply shutting down many physical voting sites.
As the 538.com political site puts it, “The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion.”
Some of the changes in Republican-led states have been aimed at limiting voting in perceived Democratic areas, while some are simply about convenience. Mail balloting before the election, shunned in 2020 as the basis for the Stop the Steal schemes, is now expected to be increasing, not because of any Covid effect, but for personal convenience.
Regardless of the outcome, it would be comforting on some level to think that American voters could speak with a ballot majority that will indeed set a direction for the country. But on the eve of a debate that all parties seem to find both overly important and more a showdown of personality than substance, it looks more and more as if what will matter is who shows up to vote in what battleground state.
All those hundreds of millions of dollars being poured into national election campaigns are aimed at drawing a huge turnout. As things stand eight weeks before voting, it’s all a statistical draw, awaiting either some imagined, enormous, public change in mind or a fight over every ballot.
We’re on the cusp of another election in which the popular vote is almost irrelevant to the ability to tip 270 Electoral College vote. Indeed, in the next several weeks, there will be more attention on how they count and certify the votes than on what set of directional policies Americans think they are enacting.
New Rules
Millions of new voters registering since the national conventions in time to find new voting laws both restrictive and expansive; changes in16 states are seen as limiting, while changes in 26 are expanding voter access.
An analysis of the changes by fivethirtyeight.com highlights several contributing factors.
The number of actual polling places is down — for a variety of reasons. In 2018, there were more than 200,000 polling places in use, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. In 2020, there were 132,000, and in 2022 it was 95,000. In many states, these closures have disproportionately been in areas with high concentrations of voters of color. Whatever else, the closing of polling places can lead to longer wait times and can even decrease turnout.
Also, in-person voting, which has rebounded since the pandemic. In 2022, more than half of votes were in person, with about 18 percent in early voting times. Mail ballots which boomed during Covid are back in more traditional proportions. It was mail balloting that formed one of the lasting legs for Donald Trump to complain about “fraud” that seems to be that he eschewed mail balloting as a technique despite using it himself in Florida.
Some states or counties that had expanded mail balloting to adapt to Covid have since ended its use, and there have been various local court decisions that either allow or disallow mail balloting and collection or required identification forms. Most states allow voters to cast an absentee ballot without providing a reason but as of 2020, 16 states required an excuse to vote absentee, according to data compiled by the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Among new voting restrictions in mostly Republican-controlled states, there are laws or rules now in place to remove ballot drop boxes, shorten polling place hours, require IDs or signature matching, barring individuals from giving out food or water to voters waiting in long lines. Texas enacted a sweeping voter restriction billthat orders election officials to knock off anyone who did not vote in a recent election, Georgia banned mobile voting vans and Ohio introduced one of the strictest voter ID laws in the country. Voters in North Carolina are required to show a photo ID. But the ID might have to be the right kind of document.
Inviting voters in Michigan, voters passed a state constitutional amendment to guarantee access to early voting and drop boxes, and Nevada made universal vote by mail, which it piloted in 2020, permanent.
Hyped Enthusiasm
We might note, in passing, that none of the vote changes allow non-citizens to cast ballots in the presidential campaign — the current object of inanity in the Republican House. Republicans are seeking to hold up federal budget extension by trying to tie imagined efforts about border migrations to Democratic ballot support. It’s already law, and a Democratic Senate will kill any such bill, should it pass.
Republicans operatives say they are reviewing some states’ voting rolls looking for surnames — something that may violate the law itself — in search of probable non-citizens.
Whether for the perceived “joy” of the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz campaign, or for the savior-like appeal of the Trump-JD Vance ticket or for the money being directed to advertising, enthusiasm for one side or the other seems to promise a high turnout. Harris wants a bigger vote, Trump wants his MAGA armies to challenge ballot counts.
A recent Gallup poll said close to 70 percent said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting. Issues like abortion rights and perceived economic changes are driving interest that has resulted in major volunteerism on both sides.
Together, more people could be voting at fewer polling places with some new voter rules in place — a formula for a frustrating experience for those caught up in the jam.
Republicans already laying out plans to potentially challenge or delay the certification of results, meaning once the vote is in, we can expect a lot of legal fighting over the counts. Expect that the Trump campaign will label any losing effort in a county or state as “fraud” once again, whether there is any evidence of voting problem or not.
Pennsylvania election officials, who may hold the deciding Electoral College votes, have decided once again to delay the count of mailed ballots until after the November 5 results are in, so we may not know the results immediately in any case.
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