Afghan: What to Believe?
Terry H. Schwadron
Aug. 19, 2021
There are a whole lot of promises being made in the name of post-war Afghanistan, and little confidence anywhere that any of those involved can make it happen.
For me, and maybe you, we helpless souls watching panic unfold on television, there are only endless questions about the future there — and at home, and an effort to sort out opinions from what is real, from international rescue attempts to claims of a more-open future.
In Afghanistan, the arrival after a decade of Taliban co-founder and de facto leader Abdul Ghani Baradar signals a formal new start for an indigenous government, but one that only reflects the dominance of armed and brutal Talibs over other tribal ethnicities. Whether the Taliban can create the consolidated government that has eluded the country since forever is unknown.
Facing a hostile world, continued resistance to his brand of Islamic cultural life and a new block on its international money accounts, the new government has to prove that it can reflect something other than armed putdown of constant opposition and provide more enlightened governance than it did 20 years ago.
“We need to watch how, and if, they fully establish control. The Taliban’s main beef with America is that we were in their country. Let’s see what happens when we’re gone,” said columnist Tom Friedman of The New York Times.
From Jalalbad yesterday, we heard reports of the Taliban beating women and children in a crowd of dissenters, and shooting into their midst — not much toward any confidence in a change of heart. From Kabul, the “safe passage” promised in words is not translating well to on-the-ground implementation by Taliban soldiers stopping people trying to leave.
Just why the Taliban wants to keep people trying to get out is a mystery all by itself.
Things to watch from the Taliban:
· The Taliban’s public promise for a general amnesty for government officials and safe passage out for those Afghans who want it seems the obvious first test. The Taliban ordered calm in Kabul. The evidence was pretty mixed, with better results in Kabul itself than in areas where the Taliban’s control of its own forces was questionable.
· If enough educated Afghans try to emigrate, including civil servants, teachers, mechanics and others as well as translators for U.S. military, the Taliban may be starting the job of governing without non-political talent to address normal needs of governing a country.
· The question of whether the Taliban is as zealous in cracking down on women’s roles and religious piety is open, but not by much. Few believe the public statements we hear when the actions remain brutal. The same 20 years of warfare also provided a generation’s time of cell phones and Internet, of a serious taste of more liberalism, and putting it all back in the jar will meet with pushback.
· The U.S. blocked the Taliban from claiming billions of dollars’ worth of assets held in this country, obviously a bargaining chip for safe passage out for those we want to rescue. Apart from all else, the Taliban needs international development money if they expect to create jobs apart from growing poppies and harvesting opium — though being possessors of 85% of the world’s heroin source may well be enough to float a country. In any case, this is about nation-building, now suddenly a bad word.
· Pretty quickly, the Taliban needs to act to bar or invite in the terror groups we fear will be drawn there, re-starting the whole mess. So far, Taliban leaders are on public record saying no, but these things don’t work off public statements.
And in Washington
But there’s an equal opportunity watch going on at home, starting with Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress who think Joe Biden should be publicly punished for a chaotic withdrawal of troops and surrenders by Afghan troops. The unpleasant politics may be disgusting, but at least they fall into what is expected:
· Exits. The planes out of Afghanistan are under way, but the fate of this administration seems tied to how well the rescues go. A lot depends on whether the immigration bureaucracy can be made to understand that there is an emergency going on, and cut through the pounds of paperwork. But Biden’s Republican opponents are both beating him up for failing to get Afghan helpers out and for bringing thousands of them to U.S. shores. Expect tons more recriminations about not starting evacuations earlier.
· Blame. All the contingency emails and calls already are coming out, with contradictions about who knew what when about the expectations for Afghan defenders to rise to their newfound independent status. Since both Democrats and Republicans are upset, we can plan to keep reliving the withdrawal days through Congressional hearings and endless politicking. All the talk does nothing here, of course, other than insisting that we turn anger into electoral votes based on a perception that leaving Afghanistan could have been more orderly. My head hurts here over the thought that leaving was never in doubt for any president until things went south so quickly this last week. We are more embarrassed at perceived humiliation than motivated to determine a national strategy.
· Strategy. When the current emergency passes, we’re going to hear a whole lot more about Biden’s foreign policy doctrines and what’s wrong with them, and, naturally, from Donald Trump telling us how much better he would have handled the same exact things. The truth is that other than shutting down terrorist camps, we never did figure out why we were in Afghanistan, how to measure the shifting goals, or how to keep the place from regressing once we eventually left.
Yet More Outrage
Meanwhile, the outrages are not limited to Kabul or Washington. Others have dramas happening well worth watching.
In India, for example, the policy is to rescue Indian nationals from Afghanistan, but with orders to favor Hindus and Sikhs over anyone Muslim. That’s right, a rescue plan depending on ethnicity, in line with a lot of other recent events in that country. In China and Russia, there is worry that a Islamicist nation next door will cause trouble for their Muslim-dominant provinces. Hang on for a new wave of anti-Muslim sentiment as well as for the terrorism watch all are promising.
Then there is the fate of fleeing Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who is said to have run away with four vehicles and a helicopter full of cash, according to the Russian embassy in Kabul, or accompanied by 200 lawmakers and aides. He showed up yesterday in the United Arab Emirates.
And there are the planes that we gave Afghani pilots to conduct their own defense. Afghani pilots apparently took them out of the country to keep them from ending up in the hands of the Taliban — only to end up in others’ hands in Russia, Uzbekistan or Tajikistan.
It’s too easy to hear armchair analysis of real-time struggle. Our job is to keep the tale-tellers honest.
The hits from this kind of chaos will keep on coming. Keep your eyes open.
##