A Vote for Delusion
Terry H. Schwadron
Jan. 25, 2024
Once again, the overkill of commentary and instant analysis of the New Hampshire primary results leave us knowing not much that we knew going into the first primary vote: Donald Trump is the continuing choice candidate for Republicans, despite a good show for Nikki Haley as a less chaotic alternative.
The voting, even with New Hampshire’s peculiar same-day party registration and re-registration rules, came off with few surprises. For whatever reasons, the turnout was high for the state — just over 300,000. That included a higher-than-normal Democrats and “non-declared” voters who registered for the day to vote in the Republican primary.
And once again, the most interesting material was not the vote, but whatever could be learned from voters themselves through exit polls.
It was self-described education levels rather than gender, age, income, or race that reflected the largest differences in Trump support or opposition. I read “education levels” as paying at least some attention to the news or being open to information and even a dose of critical thinking, since Trump routine and vengeance-laden self-promotion top accuracy in most of his rallies and speeches.
Among those identifying as “very” or “somewhat” conservative. the vote shifted expectedly towards Trump, though there were signs that even these voters did not want to totally align as MAGA voters. Expectedly, those identifying immigration and economics as most important voted more for Trump, and those who see foreign affairs and abortion
(more than 60% oppose a national abortion ban) as important chose Haley more often. As one might predict, those who think Joe Biden was the “illegitimate” victor in 2020 voting overwhelmingly for Trump.
In multiple individual televised interviews, Trump voters said they wanted a “fighter.” In this frame, Biden at 81 is too old and creaky, and Trump at 78 and a string of incoherent statements even in the last week is spry.
What Was the Message?
The endless speculation about the money, mechanics, and messages of the campaign, about the Haley decision to carry on despite an uphill challenge, rather blithely skipped what may be the most important message of the night. What I took away was that the Republican majority voting for Trump was doubling down on self-delusion about who Trump is, what he stands for, what he says and what he promises.
As if on cue, MSNBC turned away from Trump’s victory speech in the first few minutes after he opened by lying about having won elections in New Hampshire in general elections — he didn’t. It was silly — a distortion that didn’t matter to Trump’s going-forth message. Yet he did it again, before launching demeaning insults to Haley.
Border issues didn’t disappear with Trump, prices and economic matters did not shift by magnitude on his watch and pushing for American isolationism created avoidable uncertainties. The 2020 election happened without widespread fraud.
Just over half of New Hampshire Republicans said they preferred the image to the reality. That’s delusion — exactly the word that Trump used to describe Haley’s own suggestion that she did well in New Hampshire.
Biden’s job ahead is to change the perception and to show himself the non-delusional candidate.
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